Researchers from the JCAR ATRACE network recently participated in the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2026, where they contributed to discussions on the future of early warning systems and flood risk management.
From forecasting hazards to understanding impacts
A key theme at this year’s conference was the shift from traditional hazard forecasting towards impact‑based forecasting and early action. While forecasting capabilities have improved significantly in recent years, recent flood events continue to highlight gaps between forecasts and effective action on the ground.
During EGU 2026, this topic was explored in the session “Impact‑based forecasting, early warning and early action to reduce disaster risk”, which brought together researchers working at the interface of science, policy and practice. The session focused on how forecasts can be translated into meaningful information on impacts and actions, supporting decision making before and during extreme events.
Linking forecasts to action
Within this session, JCAR ATRACE researchers contributed to ongoing work on connecting forecasts to impacts and response measures.
Tim Busker (IVM) co‑organised the session, which included 24 presentations and covered a wide range of developments in impact‑based forecasting and early action. The session created space for exchange between researchers working on forecasting, modelling, decision making and human behaviour, reflecting the complexity of translating forecasts into effective action.
In addition to organising the session, Tim presented the latest developments in the Geographical Behavioural and Environmental (GEB) model. It aims to represent the full early warning early action chain, linking hazard forecasts to impacts, warnings and behavioural responses, such as evacuation or other protective actions. The model also incorporates human decision making, allowing researchers to better understand how people respond to warnings and how this influences overall outcomes.
“It was great to be attending EGU26 again. It is always the best way to connect with other researchers and to stay updated about the most recent research trends, within and beyond JCAR ATRACE.”
- Tim Busker
The GEB model also forms the basis of the work presented by JCAR ATRACE PhD researcher Rafaella Oliveira. Building on this framework, she applies the model to the Geul catchment to analyse how forecasts can be translated into warnings and concrete actions, and what this means for reducing impacts during flood events. The research is among the first to explicitly model the full early warning–early action chain.
Her results, presented during the session, show how such an impact‑based approach can support decision making by linking forecasts directly to expected consequences and recommended responses. For the 2021 flood event, the model suggests that this approach could have reduced damages significantly and improved the reach of early warnings to affected population.
Exchange and collaboration
Beyond individual presentations, EGU 2026 provided a platform for exchange with a broad community of researchers working on early warning systems, modelling approaches and risk communication.
For Rafaella, the conference offered an opportunity to both present her work and engage with others working on similar topics:
“EGU was a really nice experience, where I had the opportunity to connect with many people working on similar topics and carrying out such relevant and impactful research. Seeing so many researchers putting so much effort into their work is always inspiring and motivates us to do better.”
- Rafaella Oliveira
These interactions highlight the role of conferences such as EGU in supporting exchange between researchers and creating opportunities for collaboration across disciplines and regions
Looking ahead
Participation in EGU 2026 provided an opportunity to share ongoing research within JCAR ATRACE and to connect it to broader developments in impact‑based forecasting and early warning systems.
The insights from the session and exchanges with other researchers will continue to inform ongoing work within the programme, particularly in connecting forecasts, impacts and actions in ways that can support preparedness in transboundary river basins.
