As part of the JCAR ATRACE Master’s programme, Roy Pontman has been working on developing innovative approaches to flood risk management in the Geul catchment. His research focuses on impact-based flood forecasting, a method that translates meteorological data into actionable insights for critical infrastructure, residents, and emergency services.
Roy’s study integrates eight historic operational ECMWF ensemble and control precipitation forecasts to simulate the 14 July 2021 flood event. Using the SFINCS hydrodynamic model, he generated flood maps at lead times ranging from 88 hours to 5 hours before the event. These simulations were then evaluated against observed data and combined with vulnerability and exposure datasets to assess the distribution and probability of flood impacts on critical facilities.
“We were able to forecast impacts on a building level up to three days before the event,” Roy explains. “While the system is not yet ready for operational use, the model chain shows strong potential and serves as a proof-of-concept for future early warning applications.”
Roy highlights the value of working within the JCAR ATRACE programme, particularly its emphasis on bridging academic research with real-world collaboration. “The programme creates a platform for knowledge exchange between local governments, institutes, and universities,” he says. “This integration is essential, especially in the context of transboundary water management and increasing climate extremes.”
Through his work, Roy contributes to the development of more responsive and informed flood management strategies, reinforcing the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing complex water challenges.
Discover Roy’s research thesis here.
Interested in contributing to transboundary water research?
Explore current opportunities for Master’s students within the JCAR ATRACE programme and learn how you can get involved here.
