Flood forecasting and early warning systems are essential for reducing flood damage and saving lives. However, most operational systems focus on predicting water levels or rainfall rather than the impacts these events may cause. Decision-makers often need practical information on which areas will be affected and which actions should be taken. Impact- and action-based flood forecasting links forecasts to anticipated impacts and recommended actions, helping to prioritize responses, improve warning effectiveness, and encourage early action.
Research topic explained
My research aims to develop an action- and impact-based early warning system and to evaluate it across the full chain, from forecasts to action. The goal is to generate more useful information for decision-makers and to demonstrate the concrete benefits of the systems, while also accounting for behavioural responses. I also aim to use this knowledge to explore trade-offs between short-term protective actions and long-term structural adaptation under future climate change.
We have developed an action- and impact-based flood forecasting system for the Geul catchment that translates probabilistic forecasts into action recommendations. I am currently working on my first paper, which evaluates the added value of this system in the context of the 2021 flood event. The next step is to increase model complexity by incorporating behavioural components and extending the analysis to multiple flood events. Finally, the research will be scaled up and include long-term adaptation responses to explore trade-offs between short-term actions and structural measures.